tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post2457206105854477518..comments2024-03-11T07:05:53.847-04:00Comments on Daniel Solis: Analyzing the Math behind PickerDaniel Solishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07683491911441126187noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-62080193822168302202012-10-27T17:09:19.056-04:002012-10-27T17:09:19.056-04:00Yes, with an emphasis on 'slight'. I think...Yes, with an emphasis on 'slight'. I think it was worth foregoing a point or two, if there is no shaft mechanic.<br /><br /><br />One calculation I should probably try is the average face value at n dice, n-1 dice, ..., 1 die left. That is, how much of a point loss should you expect to have for going later in the round. (Ignoring points from sets.)Mark Sherrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-65423270117238590562012-10-26T12:58:34.549-04:002012-10-26T12:58:34.549-04:00Didn't you get it to a point where it's a ...Didn't you get it to a point where it's a slight advantage?DanielSolisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-68252496030405989692012-10-26T10:59:15.806-04:002012-10-26T10:59:15.806-04:00I don't have anything that looks at the curren...I don't have anything that looks at the current scores. Picking the person after the current leader (unless it's yourself) shouldn't be too hard.<br /><br />The Choose strategy is approximately the choose_colour_match_noshaft strategy, with a weighting of -3 given to shaft dice. I actually find that performance decreases at -3, and that -2 works better.<br /><br />Also be warned that the Dropbox link that Daniel shared points to the version I'm actively working on, so is in an odd state right now; e.g. shaft rules are completely disabled. I'm trying to figure out why being picker seems to be such a raw deal.Mark Sherrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-29900291772472767852012-10-26T08:47:37.369-04:002012-10-26T08:47:37.369-04:00Ooh, good ideas. If you know how to code in Python...Ooh, good ideas. If you know how to code in Python, you can fiddle with the AI here. https://www.dropbox.com/s/6dpubxpohm45bd0/pubpicker.pyDanielSolisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-66628047053131849492012-10-26T02:10:37.286-04:002012-10-26T02:10:37.286-04:00Two more strategy suggestions:
Pick - Always pick ...Two more strategy suggestions:<br />Pick - Always pick the player AFTER the current leader<br />Choose - Only take the high die if it is 3 greater than the lowest, otherwise pick second highest.Kennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-54770295451342059012012-10-24T11:30:45.769-04:002012-10-24T11:30:45.769-04:00Sorry I explained my concept in a rush and I was m...Sorry I explained my concept in a rush and I was misleading, I think that all the ai should includ a consideration on the peaks and offs of the results within the single round. So for example if the higher number is 5 and the lowest is 3 (say you rolled a 3, a 4, a 4 and a 5), going for the lowest is much more valuable than taking the highest number. So if you have a wider range of variety of result, or even just a wide spread (say you rolled a 1, a 2, a 3 and a 6) taking the highest has a greater impact on the final result. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12597407200820821161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-13692149389415878402012-10-24T08:22:19.600-04:002012-10-24T08:22:19.600-04:00I randomize the turn order each game. When I didn&...I randomize the turn order each game. When I didn't, it had a huge effect on the outcomes.Mark Sherrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-426350573954408452012-10-24T03:57:08.887-04:002012-10-24T03:57:08.887-04:00The sum of all the dice within a single turn to ex...The sum of all the dice within a single turn to explain meself betterAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12597407200820821161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-17315938166183173142012-10-24T03:27:23.593-04:002012-10-24T03:27:23.593-04:00I think you should include in the algorithm the to...I think you should include in the algorithm the total summ of the dice in order to improve the ai. <br />Mark knows why! Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12597407200820821161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-16654147738970707892012-10-24T00:34:44.204-04:002012-10-24T00:34:44.204-04:00Are the order of the players random or alphabetica...Are the order of the players random or alphabetical? The player to the right rules are going to have a fair amount of impact on the general scoring dynamics, even for other players, it would seem. <br /><br />I'd be curious solely on getting your turn sooner worth playing with.Steven Davisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-50126189048609642532012-10-23T22:52:40.213-04:002012-10-23T22:52:40.213-04:00To make things fairer for the other players, I add...To make things fairer for the other players, I added two new algorithms. They're both based off of the one Eve uses, but one will give a negative weighting of 1 point to getting the shaft, while the other gives a positive weighting of 1 to becoming picker.<br /><br />The scores are closer. Picking the prior player instead of a random player when picking gives a 1.5-2% improvement. Using Eve and Frank as a baseline (algorithms unchanged), trying to avoid being Shaft lowers win percentage by about 2 points. Preferring becoming Picker lowers it by 3-5% (pick strategy becomes much more important.)Mark Sherrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1818073417709561773.post-83605466422835551922012-10-23T22:36:24.101-04:002012-10-23T22:36:24.101-04:00I think you missed my later analysis, where I foun...I think you missed my later analysis, where I found a bug (or at least changed the parity of bugs to even instead of odd), and Frank wins 30% of the time.Mark Sherrynoreply@blogger.com